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Wheel strategy calculator

Size cash-secured puts, covered calls, rolls and full wheel cycles — premium, annualized return, breakeven, probabilities and Greeks.

Premium income
$199.34
Annualized
24.25%
Breakeven
$98.01

Inputs

Expires Tue, Oct 20

Results

Premium income
$199.34
Annualized
24.25%
Return on capital
1.99%
Premium / day
$6.64
Net premium spread over the days to expiration — the fairest way to compare expiries.
Capital secured
$10,000
Breakeven
$98.01
Downside protection
2%
How far the stock can fall from the current price before the trade loses money at expiration.
Max loss
-$9,800.66
Worst case if the stock falls to $0 by expiration (puts are floored at zero).

Payoff at expiration

Net P&L by underlying price

Probabilities & Greeks

IV 19%· from premium

Probability

Probability of profit
63.4%
Chance the trade is profitable at expiration (price beyond breakeven), assuming a lognormal price with no drift.
Prob. of assignment
51.1%
Chance the short put finishes in the money and shares are assigned.
Expected move (1σ)
± $5.45
One standard-deviation move by expiration: spot × IV × √(days/365). Price stays within ±1σ ~68% of the time.
1σ price range
$94.55 – $105.45

Greeksshort put, from your side of the trade

Position delta (Δ)
0.46
Share-equivalent exposure of the short position, per share. Positive for a short put, negative for a short call.
Theta / day
$3.04
Premium decay you collect per calendar day, all else equal.
Gamma (Γ)
-0.0728
Position gamma: how fast delta moves per $1 in the underlying. Negative for a short option.
Vega / 1%
-$11.39
Position value change per 1-point move in implied volatility — negative for a short option: rising IV hurts.

Fair value and edge need a market IV — add one under Advanced. With an IV backed out of your own premium they would read ≈ $0 by construction.

Probabilities assume a lognormal price with zero drift; Greeks and fair value use Black-Scholes at the risk-free rate. Estimates only — not a guarantee.

Scenario analysis

MovePriceP&LReturn
-20%$80-$1,801-18%
-10%$90-$801-8%
-5%$95-$301-3%
Breakeven (-2%)$98.01$00%
Flat$100$1992%
5%$105$1992%
10%$110$1992%
20%$120$1992%

Net P&L at expiration if the underlying moves by each amount from the current price (or strike). The breakeven row shows the exact move that flips the trade.

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Frequently asked questions

What does the wheel calculator compute?
For a cash-secured put or covered call it shows net premium after commissions, return on the capital secured, simple or compounded annualized return, breakeven, downside cushion and max loss. With an underlying price it adds the payoff curve at expiration, the probability of profit and assignment, the expected move and the position Greeks. Roll mode compares a buy-back with the new contract, and Wheel mode chains a put and a call into one cycle.
How is the annualized return calculated?
Return on capital is the net premium divided by the cash secured (strike × 100 × contracts) or, for a covered call, the share cost basis. It is scaled to a year by 365 ÷ days to expiration, or compounded per cycle when the Advanced toggle is on. It is an estimate of what repeating the trade would yield, not a guarantee.
What is the breakeven of a cash-secured put?
Strike minus the premium received per share, plus commissions per share. Below that price at expiration the assigned shares are worth less than the cash you effectively paid for them.
Where do the probabilities come from?
From a lognormal price model with no drift, using the implied volatility you enter or the one backed out of your premium with Black-Scholes. They describe a statistical model of the market, not a forecast, and ignore earnings gaps and other jumps.

About the wheel strategy

The wheel is an options income strategy: sell cash-secured puts to collect premium, and if you're assigned the shares, sell covered calls against them — repeating the cycle.

This calculator shows the premium yield, annualized ROI and breakeven for each leg, so you can size cash-secured puts, covered calls and rolls with confidence before you place the trade.

Read the wheel strategy guide