Free tool · Probability · no signup
Options probability and breakeven calculator The odds, before you sell.
Estimate the chance of a profitable expiry under a simple price model, alongside breakeven and payoff limits.Under this model the trade finishes profitable 59.66% of the time; breakeven sits at $98.01.
Estimated probability of profit
59.66%
Probability of finishing below the put strike
51.43%
Share-price breakeven
$98.01
Maximum profit at expiry
$199.00
Maximum loss at expiry
$9,801.00
01
Your inputs
Example values are provided. Replace them with your own scenario. Prices and premiums are in USD per share; fees are per contract.
02
Your estimate
One 100-share contract, constant volatility and a lognormal price model with a zero interest-rate input. Profit includes the entered premium, fee and, for a covered call, share cost.
- Estimated probability of profit
- 59.66%
- Probability of finishing below the put strike
- 51.43%
- Share-price breakeven
- $98.01
- Maximum profit at expiry
- $199.00
- Maximum loss at expiry
- $9,801.00
This is a model estimate, not a forecast or trading signal. It excludes dividends, taxes, price jumps and early exercise. Finishing beyond a strike does not guarantee actual assignment.
Save this trade to a free tracker: YieldCove keeps the P/L, assignment and roll math for you.
03
Worked example
The default scenario, computed with this tool’s own math — replace the inputs above with your trade.
Take the same $100.00 put sold for $2.00, 30 days out, with the shares at $100.00 and 25% implied volatility. The model puts the chance of a profitable expiry at 59.7% and the chance of finishing below the strike at 51.4%. Breakeven is $98.01; the best case keeps $199.00.
- Estimated probability of profit
- 59.7%
- Probability of finishing below the put strike
- 51.4%
- Share-price breakeven
- $98.01
- Maximum profit at expiry
- $199.00
04
Common questions
What the numbers mean — and what they leave out.
- What does probability of profit mean here?
- It estimates whether the combined position has a strictly positive profit at expiry. If the position’s maximum payoff cannot be positive, the displayed probability is zero.
- What can make the estimate inaccurate?
- Volatility can change and real returns can differ from the model. Early exercise, dividends and costs outside the entered fee are not included.
05
The rest of the workbench
Every free tool, one click away — plus the terms behind these numbers.
Next steps
Plan the trade before you place it: the position size calculator shows how many shares or contracts fit your risk, the options profit calculator draws the payoff at expiry, the risk/reward calculator weighs the target against the stop, and the drawdown simulator shows how deep a run of losses can go. New to options? Start with the free lessons Why sell options instead of buy them, Reading an options chain and The Greeks, in plain English.
Terms behind the numbers
06
Keep going
Priced a trade? Track it for real, or learn the ideas behind the numbers.
The free YieldCove newsletter
Get The Wheelhouse in your inbox
One email every Sunday — the week ahead, practical wheel-strategy ideas and YieldCove updates. Free to read. Unsubscribe anytime.
Educational only — not financial advice.