Free tools
Options probability and breakeven calculator
Estimate the chance of a profitable expiry under a simple price model, alongside breakeven and payoff limits.
Your inputs
Example values are provided. Replace them with your own scenario. Prices and premiums are in USD per share; fees are per contract.
Your estimate
One 100-share contract, constant volatility and a lognormal price model with a zero interest-rate input. Profit includes the entered premium, fee and, for a covered call, share cost.
- Estimated probability of profit
- 59.66%
- Probability of finishing below the put strike
- 51.43%
- Share-price breakeven
- $98.01
- Maximum profit at expiry
- $199.00
- Maximum loss at expiry
- $9,801.00
This is a model estimate, not a forecast or trading signal. It excludes dividends, taxes, price jumps and early exercise. Finishing beyond a strike does not guarantee actual assignment.
Common questions
- What does probability of profit mean here?
- It estimates whether the combined position has a strictly positive profit at expiry. If the position’s maximum payoff cannot be positive, the displayed probability is zero.
- What can make the estimate inaccurate?
- Volatility can change and real returns can differ from the model. Early exercise, dividends and costs outside the entered fee are not included.
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