CRDO wheel watch: $200 put, 19.4% cushion, earnings inside
CRDO near $234.04 shows a Sep 18 $200 cash-secured put around $11.25 mid (5.62% in 30 days; ~68% annualized as comparison math) and breakeven $188.75 (~19.4% below spot). Sep 1 after-close earnings fall inside the window, so delta stays near the bottom of the house band on delayed public data.
YieldCove Desk
4 min read
Spot
$234.04
-4.8% vs prior close
RSI(14)
51.8
neutral band
IV (put)
101%
vs ~93% ~3m ATM tenor
DTE
30
Sep 18, 2026
Credit (mid)
$11.25
$1125/contract
Ann. ROC math
~68%
5.62% in 30d
The setup in 30 seconds
Credo Technology Group (CRDO) builds high-speed connectivity silicon used in AI and cloud data-center links. Around midday ET on Aug 19, 2026, the shares traded near $234.04 on Nasdaq/Cboe delayed prints (about -4.8% under Monday’s $245.97 close).
The educational wheel scan on Eddie’s watchlist flags a cash-secured put — sell one put, keep $20,000 cash per contract ready to buy 100 shares if assigned. The line that cleared liquidity and cushion gates today is the Sep 18, 2026 $200 put, about $11.25 mid ($10.80–$11.70), delta near 0.24.
Sep 1 after-close earnings (Jul/2026 quarter, ~$0.91 consensus EPS on four estimates) sit inside this 30-day window. That is a label, not a free pass: we keep delta toward the bottom of the 0.15–0.30 house band and spell out the gap risk below. Live-entry language for this midday slot ends 12:30 p.m. ET — after that, re-price; do not chase a stale mid.
New to cash-secured puts? You sell a put and reserve enough cash to buy 100 shares at the strike if the stock finishes below it. You keep the premium if the put expires worthless, or you may own the shares at strike minus premium (your breakeven) if assigned. Nothing here is an instruction to trade — it is a worked example on delayed public quotes.
The trade
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Ticker / strategy | CRDO · cash-secured put (educational) |
| Strike / expiry / DTE | $200 · Sep 18, 2026 · 30 days |
| Delta (Cboe) | ~0.24 put delta (earnings-aware, low end of 0.15–0.30 band) |
| Entry limit (per share) | $10.85–$11.25 limit only — no market orders |
| Entry (per contract) | $1085–$1125 |
| Cash reserved | $20,000 per contract |
| Breakeven | $188.75 (19.4% below spot $234.04) |
| Max return on collateral | 5.62% in 30 days (~68% annualized — comparison math, not a forecast) |
| Max loss framing | Premium cushions assignment basis to $188.75; full collateral is still at risk if CRDO goes to zero |
| Liquidity snapshot | OI 903 · bid/ask $10.80/$11.70 · spread 8.0% of mid (at house 8% cap) |
Why this stock, why now
Technicals. RSI(14) is 51.8 on Nasdaq daily closes — neutral, not washed-out and not a blow-off. Spot $234.04 sits about +1.0% vs the 20-day MA ($231.78), -3.1% vs the 50-day ($241.48), and +36.0% vs the 200-day ($172.06). Intraday volume by late morning was only ~0.51× the 20-session average (session still open). In plain terms: the tape cooled after a strong multi-month run above the 200-day, and the $200 strike still sits above the last 20-session low near $177.45.
Valuation. CNBC’s quote cache shows CRDO near 38.1× forward earnings vs about 23.1× for AVGO, 51.7× for MRVL, and 50.2× for ALAB, with trailing revenue near $1.335B and gross margin near 68.04%. Nasdaq’s revenue table still shows a steep FY2026 scale-up versus FY2025 quarters, and the Apr 2026 print beat consensus ($0.92 vs $0.77). In plain terms: you are not screening a cigar-butt; you are screening a rich, growth-priced connectivity name where assignment means owning an expensive compounder at a lower net basis.
Income. The candidate put’s implied vol is about 101% on Cboe. A live ATM term-structure proxy near three months sits around 93% on the same Cboe chain’s longer tenors; a separate trailing 3-month IV history series was not available at publish time. In plain terms: the option market is still charging a fat premium into earnings, which is why the collateral math looks rich even with delta held down.
Macro / catalysts. Confirmed next earnings: Sep 1, 2026 after the close (Nasdaq calendar + CNBC event field), fiscal quarter ending Jul/2026, consensus EPS $0.91 on four estimates. This week’s U.S. calendar already featured housing starts/permits and industrial production on Wednesday, with oil inventories on Thursday (Nasdaq economic calendar). 72-hour desk reading via Nasdaq-syndicated headlines: AI interconnect/narrative pieces on Credo (Motley Fool Aug 18; Zacks on margins and chiplet interconnect Aug 13–17) — tone is bullish coverage, not a new primary filing we opened. In plain terms: the binary event that matters for this ticket is the Sep 1 print, not today’s macro prints.
The exit plan
| Play | Rule of thumb on this ticket |
|---|---|
| Take profit | Buy the put back near $5.62 (~50% of the $11.25 credit), often within 1–2 weeks if IV crushes cleanly |
| Time exit | If still open around 14–21 DTE (roughly early Sep), close or roll rather than hold blind into final decay — especially around the print |
| Roll trigger | If CRDO closes under $200 with 21+ DTE left, look to roll out/down only for a net credit after spreads |
| Assignment path | Owning at ~$188.75 net basis is acceptable only if we already like Credo’s business at that entry; wheel then continues with covered calls — never as a forced “must own” |
What would invalidate this. (1) CRDO closes materially under $200 before we can manage the put. (2) Sep 1 earnings gap through the strike on guidance or margin shock. (3) Bid/ask blows out so the $10.85–$11.25 limit is fantasy liquidity. Any of those and the educational setup is done — no averaging down from a blog post.
What could go wrong
- Earnings gap (primary): Sep 1 after-close results inside the window — a hard gap under $200 can pin a large mark-to-market loss before Sep 18.
- Growth de-rate: forward P/E near 38× leaves little room if AI interconnect demand stories cool; multiple compression can tag the strike without a company-specific blow-up.
- Liquidity/slippage: spread is already 8.0% of mid (house cap). A fast tape can force worse fills than the $11.25 mid used in the math.
Beginner corner. DTE = days to expiration. Delta ≈ rough odds the option finishes in the money (a −0.24 put delta is a lower-probability short put). IV = implied volatility, the options market’s priced uncertainty. Breakeven on a short put ≈ strike − premium. Assignment = you buy 100 shares per contract at the strike; cash-secured means that cash was reserved up front.
Sources
- [1]Nasdaq CRDO quote (spot) — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 1
- [2]Cboe delayed quote CRDO — Cboe · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 1
- [3]Cboe delayed options chain CRDO — Cboe · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 1
- [4]Nasdaq CRDO historical daily prices — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 1
- [5]Nasdaq earnings calendar 2026-09-01 (CRDO) — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 1
- [6]CNBC CRDO quote / next earnings field — CNBC · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 2
- [7]CNBC multi-name valuation fields (CRDO/AVGO/MRVL/ALAB) — CNBC · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 2
- [8]Nasdaq CRDO revenue & EPS table — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 1
- [9]Nasdaq CRDO earnings surprise history — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 1
- [10]Nasdaq U.S. economic calendar (Aug 19–20, 2026) — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 1
- [11]Nasdaq market status (session open) — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 1
- [12]Syndicated CRDO headlines via Nasdaq news API — Nasdaq/Motley Fool/Zacks · Accessed 2026-08-19 · Tier 3
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Do your own research before trading.
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