Akamai pays $1.7B before it earns: this week’s wheel setups

Wheelhouse Weekly · October 11, 2026

The week ahead, October 12–16, built from Friday’s closing data. English first; the full French version follows.

This week in three lines

• Akamai pays first. About $1.7 billion of capex this quarter for its $11.6 billion Anthropic deal; the revenue only starts in late Q2 2027.
• Inflation week. September CPI lands Wednesday; PPI and retail sales follow Thursday, all at 08:30 Toronto time.
• Setup #1 is $AKAM. A $95 put, studied in full below. Earnings on November 5 fall inside its expiry, so it stays watch-only.

The lead · Akamai spends before it earns

On September 24, Akamai announced an $11.6 billion, seven-year agreement with Anthropic. Its investor presentation shows the order of events: about $1.7 billion of capex in the fourth quarter of 2026 to secure components, including memory, with no revenue from the deal this year. Then $3.1 billion more in 2027, when service starts in late Q2 and brings $150–300 million of revenue. Akamai expects the full run-rate, about $1.7 billion of revenue a year, by the end of 2028.

Add it up: about $4.8 billion of the $5.5 billion build is spent by the end of 2027, when the deal has brought in $300 million at most. That is a timing gap, not a valuation verdict. The bull case: a seven-year commitment that Akamai says yields strong cash conversion. The risk: delays, financing costs or a slower ramp would reach shareholders before the revenue does.

A put seller faces the same order of events on a smaller scale: the premium arrives first, and the duty to buy 100 shares can come later. Setup #1 starts there.

Setup #1 · $AKAM $95 put, November 20

Watch-only: wide spread, earnings inside the expiry. The study: sell one $95 put expiring November 20, 2026. If assigned, you buy 100 shares at $95. Prices are Friday-close Cboe delayed quotes; reprice at Monday’s 09:30 open and assume no fill.

• Why own the shares: AI cloud demand is real, but Akamai funds the build first. Q2 operating cash flow was $326 million; cash and marketable securities of $4.616 billion stood against $7.563 billion of convertible notes.
• Trend: Friday close $106.95, below the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages ($108.72 / $111.23 / $112.11). RSI(14) 47.6: neutral, not oversold. Volume 0.96× its 20-day average.
• Contract: bid/ask $3.80/$5.20, a $1.40 spread, so don’t count on the midpoint. Delta −0.25, implied volatility 70%, open interest 892. The $380 credit is 4.0% of the cash reserved, over the 39 days from Monday to expiry; breakeven sits 14.7% below Friday’s close.

2 more setups for PRO members

• $AMKR $43 put, Nov 20: breakeven $41.25, 16% under Friday’s close, but only 14 contracts of open interest and earnings on October 26.
• $MU $950 put, Nov 13: $2,295 of premium on $95,000 of cash; the stock goes ex-dividend October 14, and the 50-day average ($976.19) is the line to watch.

[Read all three setups in full →](https://yieldcove.com/en/tips/akam-week-ahead-wheel-setups-october-11-2026-2026-10-11) Strike logic, event checks and what would change each plan. Opens Sunday at 08:00; full access with YieldCove PRO.

The week ahead · Toronto time

• Mon Oct 12, 09:30: U.S. stocks and options open as usual (Columbus Day is not an exchange holiday). It’s Thanksgiving in Canada, so check your broker’s hours, then reprice Friday’s quotes.
• Tue Oct 13, ~07:00: $JPM opens the bank earnings season; its call is at 08:30.
• Wed Oct 14, 08:30: September CPI. Before the U.S. open, $ASML reports Q3 results, and $MU goes ex-dividend ($0.15).
• Thu Oct 15, 08:30: September PPI and retail sales. $TSM reports Q3 overnight; its call is at 02:00.

Watchlist · what changed

• $AEHR: about $6 million of follow-on Sonoma orders from its lead hyperscale customer on October 7, with deliveries over the next six months. The stock still fell 21% on the week, to $84.64; orders are not all this quarter’s revenue.
• $AMKR: phase two in Arizona adds 60,000 m² of cleanroom, built from late 2027 to end-2029. Shares fell 12.3% on the week, to $49.12.

From Eddie’s tracker

On Friday, Eddie sold one $TSLA $425 covered call expiring October 19 for $0.85 a share ($85). The strike is 11% above Friday’s $382.70 close, and the call expires two days before Tesla reports on October 21. A record of his trade, not a recommendation.

Free tool: write down the cash at stake, the event dates and your exit line before you look at the premium, with the free wheel spreadsheet. Missed an issue? Browse the archive.

Photo: Akamai’s headquarters at 145 Broadway, Cambridge, Massachusetts, on November 7, 2025; the crane stands on a neighbouring construction site. Ajay Suresh / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0, cropped.

AI-assisted editorial: researched by Codex, edited by Claude. Educational information, not personalized investment advice. Figures exclude fees and taxes; early assignment is possible. No trades were executed for this newsletter.