Wheelhouse Weekly · November 1, 2026
The week ahead, November 2–6, built from Friday’s closing data. Clocks fell back overnight, so every time below is Toronto time (EST). English first; the full French version follows.
The week in three lines
- Alphabet had its worst day ever. Google Cloud sales doubled, yet $GOOGL fell 12.6% on Thursday, twice the move options had priced. Search missed estimates, and quarterly free cash flow was −$9.07 billion.
- Waiting changed the price, not the stock. The $AMZN $230 put from last week’s Setup #1 paid $505 before Amazon’s numbers. It pays $360 now, with the stock 3.1% lower. Setup #1 explains why.
- A busy five days. $PLTR and $AAPL on Monday, $SHOP and $AMD on Tuesday, U.S. Election Day on Tuesday, and the October jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m.
The scoreboard · week to Friday, October 30
S&P 500 · −0.6% on the week
7,580
Nasdaq · −2.0% on the week
25,437
VIX · flat on the week
19.42
10-year yield · −0.06 pt
4.94%
Over October, the Nasdaq fell 5.3% and the S&P 500 0.9%. On Wednesday, the Fed held its key rate at 3.75%–4.00%; two of the twelve voters wanted a hike.
The lead · The clouds boomed. The stocks did not.
Last week we framed Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon as a cash test. Demand passed it easily. Google Cloud sales more than doubled, up 103% to $30.71 billion. Azure grew 48% to $33.2 billion, the first time Microsoft gave a dollar figure. Amazon Web Services grew 39.3% to $45.98 billion, its fastest pace in nearly five years.
Cash is where the grades split. Alphabet’s free cash flow was −$9.07 billion for the quarter, against about −$2.7 billion expected, and search, its biggest business, missed estimates. $GOOGL fell 12.6% on Thursday, its worst day ever. Amazon’s free cash flow over the past 12 months was −$42.4 billion, against +$14.8 billion a year earlier, and it still plans about $220 billion of capex this year. Microsoft spent $45.2 billion, finance leases included, and kept $18.63 billion of free cash flow, down 27%.
For put sellers, the lesson is in the options. Last Sunday we showed the moves they priced by Friday, October 30: ±5.3% for $MSFT, ±6.1% for $GOOGL and ±7.9% for $AMZN. Two stayed well inside: $MSFT ended the week down 0.5% and $AMZN down 3.1%. $GOOGL fell 12.6%, about twice its priced move.
Priced move vs. actual move, Oct 23–30
Priced: the at-the-money straddle expiring Oct 30, as published Oct 25, up or down. Actual: size of the drop from the Oct 23 close to the Oct 30 close; all three fell.
Source: Cboe delayed quotes; Nasdaq daily closes
A priced move is the market’s average guess, not a ceiling. That is the case for selling after the numbers rather than before: you give up the extra premium, but you know the news before you commit the cash. Setup #1 shows the trade-off on one contract.
Setup #1 · $AMZN $230 put, November 20
Study: the report is behind it, the trend is not fixed. Sell one $230 put expiring November 20, 2026. If assigned, you buy 100 shares at $230. Prices are Friday-close Cboe delayed quotes; reprice at Monday’s 9:30 a.m. open and assume no fill.
Cash to reserve
$23,000
Credit at the bid
$360
Breakeven at expiry
$226.40
Max loss (stock at $0)
$22,640
- Same contract, one week later: last Sunday this put paid $505, with Amazon’s numbers still ahead. Now it pays $360, though the stock is $7.65 lower. Implied volatility fell from 47% to 35%: the event is gone, and so is the money paid for it.
- Why own the shares: AWS grew 39.3% and operating income rose 61% to $28.1 billion. The catch is cash: −$42.4 billion of free cash flow over 12 months, with about $220 billion of capex planned for 2026.
- Trend: Friday close $240.35, below its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages ($254.39 / $254.28 / $243.40). RSI(14) 38.3: soft, not oversold. Volume 2.75× its 20-day average, after a dip to $229.36 on Friday.
- Contract: bid/ask $3.60/$3.70, a tight $0.10 spread, with 18,459 contracts open. Delta −0.28. The $360 credit is 1.6% of the cash reserved over the 18 days from Monday to expiry. Breakeven sits 5.8% below Friday’s close.
One put at expiry, before fees
Per contract, before fees and taxes. Scenarios, not forecasts; the $22,640 maximum loss is not plotted. Early assignment is possible.
Source: Cboe delayed quote, October 30 close; YieldCove arithmetic
What would change the plan
Amazon has no scheduled company event before expiry. Election Day and the jobs report can still move every stock. The case weakens on more closes below the 200-day average ($243.40), or if spending keeps outrunning operating cash without faster AWS growth. Pass if $22,640 of Amazon stock at the breakeven would be too large a part of your account.
2 more setups for PRO members
- $MSFT $500 put, Nov 20: $590 on $50,000 of cash, with the breakeven 5.3% below Friday’s close. The steadiest chart of the three, with a wide $0.50 quote and a November 19 ex-dividend date to plan around.
- $GOOGL $265 put, Nov 20: $305 on $26,500, breakeven 6.4% below. After its worst day ever, RSI(14) sits at 21.4. It stays watch-only, and the post explains what would change that.
[Read all three setups in full →](https://yieldcove.com/en/tips/amzn-week-ahead-wheel-setups-november-1-2026-2026-11-01) Strike logic, risk checks and what would change each plan. Opens Sunday at 8:00 a.m.; full access with YieldCove PRO.
Last week’s setups · the check-up
All three of last week’s studies were watch-only into the reports. At Friday’s close, all three puts were worth less than their credit. The $AMZN $230 put that paid $505 was quoted near $3.65, a paper gain of about $140 per contract (28% of the credit). The $MSFT $495 put that paid $775 was near $5.05, about $270 ahead (35%). The $BE $170 put that paid $720 was near $5.08, about $213 ahead (30%), with $BE up 5.1% on the week despite an 8.6% drop on Friday. All three still have 19 days to run.
The week ahead · Toronto time (EST)
- Monday, November 2: $PLTR and $AEHR report after the close (calls 5:00 p.m.); $AAPL holds its call at 5:00 p.m.
- Tuesday, November 3: U.S. Election Day. $SHOP reports before the open (call 8:30 a.m.); job openings (JOLTS) at 10:00 a.m.; $AMD reports after the close (call 5:00 p.m.).
- Thursday, November 5: productivity and costs at 8:30 a.m.; $AKAM holds its call at 4:30 p.m.; $LITE reports after the close (call 5:00 p.m.).
- Friday, November 6: the October jobs report at 8:30 a.m.
Where only a call time is listed, the company has not said whether results come before the open or after the close. No Fed meeting this week; the next one ends December 9.
Watchlist · what changed
- $INTC: fell 28.6% on Friday to $65.76, its worst day since 1974, though third-quarter sales grew 21% to $16.5 billion. It forecast $15.0–16.0 billion for the fourth quarter, below the roughly $17.1 billion analysts expected; CNBC tied the gap to a plant shutdown in Israel and soft PC demand. The stock lost 45.3% in October.
- $META: another 4.3% lower on the week, at $614.99; it lost 15.2% in October.
- $PLTR: fell 6.3% on Friday to $184.11, ahead of its Monday report.
- $CRWV: fell 9.7% on Friday to $54.87; it lost 37.0% in October.
From Eddie’s tracker
Two covered calls closed this week, both bought back early. Eddie sold a $TSLA $435 call for $1.09 a share ($109) on Monday, October 26, and bought it back for $0.50 on Friday: $57.02 kept after fees, in 4 days. A $DRAM $63 call followed the same path: $108 up front on Wednesday, bought back for $50 on Friday, $56.46 kept in 2 days. A record of his closed trades, not a recommendation.
Free tool: before you sell a put after a report, write down the cash at stake, your breakeven and your exit line in the free wheel spreadsheet. Missed an issue? Browse the archive.
Photo: Google’s data center in Council Bluffs, Iowa, at sunset, February 18, 2017. Chad Davis / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0; resized.
AI-assisted editorial: researched by Codex, edited by Claude. Educational information, not personalized investment advice. Figures exclude fees and taxes; early assignment is possible. No trades were executed for this newsletter.
Sources
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- [2]Microsoft FY27 Q1 results / Résultats T1 2027 — Microsoft / SEC · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [3]Microsoft FY27 Q1 call: capex / Conférence : investissements — Microsoft · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [4]Microsoft dividend, ex-date Nov 19 / Dividende — Microsoft · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [5]Alphabet Q3 2026 results / Résultats T3 2026 — Alphabet / SEC · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [6]Alphabet’s worst day ever; Microsoft free cash flow / Pire séance d’Alphabet — CNBC · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 2
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- [8]Intel Q3 2026 results and Q4 outlook / Résultats et prévisions — Intel / SEC · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [9]Intel’s worst day since the 1970s / Pire séance d’Intel depuis 1974 — CNBC · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 2
- [10]FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026 / Déclaration du FOMC — Federal Reserve · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [11]BLS release schedule, November 2026 / Calendrier du BLS — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
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- [15]Shopify Q3 date / Date des résultats — Shopify · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [16]AMD Q3 date / Date des résultats — AMD / Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
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- [21]Nasdaq Composite daily closes / Clôtures quotidiennes — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [22]10-year Treasury par yield / Taux à 10 ans — U.S. Treasury · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [23]$AMZN options, Oct 30 close (delayed) — Cboe · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [24]$MSFT options, Oct 30 close (delayed) — Cboe · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [25]$GOOGL options, Oct 30 close (delayed) — Cboe · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [26]$BE options, Oct 30 close (delayed) — Cboe · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [27]$AMZN daily history — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 2
- [28]$MSFT daily history — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 2
- [29]$GOOGL daily history — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 2
- [30]$INTC daily history — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 2
- [31]$META daily history — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 2
- [32]$CRWV daily history — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 2
- [33]Eddie’s tracker (closed trades) — YieldCove · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [34]Cash-secured put basics / Les bases — Options Industry Council · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
- [35]Hero photo: Google data center, Council Bluffs, Feb 18, 2017 (CC BY 2.0) — Wikimedia Commons · Accessed 2026-10-31 · Tier 1
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Do your own research before trading.
