PLTR wheel watch: $115 put pays 2.74% in 32 days

The setup in 30 seconds

Palantir builds software that helps government and commercial teams connect data, decisions and operations. This morning’s watchlist screen found a liquid August 21 $115 cash-secured put with 32 days to expiry (DTE) and an earnings-aware delta near 0.188. The reference ticket uses a $3.15 per-share credit—$315 for one standard contract—inside matching Nasdaq and Cboe markets. Against the $133.06 stock snapshot at 9:55 a.m. ET on July 20, the $111.85 breakeven sat 15.9% below spot. PLTR led the balanced shortlist because both option feeds cleared the spread test while the lower delta recognized confirmed August 3 earnings.

The trade

Nasdaq and Cboe both showed $3.10 bid / $3.20 ask, 10,692 open contracts and 47 contracts of volume. The 3.17% midpoint spread cleared the 8% gate on both feeds; Cboe measured 69.39% IV and delta −0.1881. These are snapshots, not fill promises, and a limit should be rebuilt before the 10:30 a.m. ET window closes.

Why this stock, why now

Technicals. RSI(14) was 73.7, an overbought reading. PLTR stood above its 20-day average of $125.48 and just above its 50-day average of $132.46, but remained below the 200-day average of $155.39. Volume at 9:55 a.m. was only 0.09× the prior 20-day full-session average, so the early strength lacked a full-day volume test. The measured support band below the strike runs from $106.37 to $112.93, while $138.90 is the recent 20-session high. In plain terms: the $115 strike is near the top of a late-June base, not far beneath it.

Valuation. Two public screens disagreed but told the same broad story: PLTR’s forward P/E ranged from 64.0× to 83.3×, versus 101.1×–127.2× for Snowflake and 10.8×–12.3× for Salesforce. Palantir’s filed first-quarter 2026 revenue was $1.633 billion, up 84.7% from $883.9 million a year earlier. In plain terms: the growth rate is exceptional, but a premium multiple leaves the share price sensitive to any slowdown.

Macro and recent checks. The Conference Board dates its July U.S. Leading Economic Index release July 20, and the Federal Reserve’s next scheduled meeting is July 28–29, also inside the contract. A fresh 72-hour SEC scan found only a July 17 Form 4, not an operating update. No analyst move was retained because the available reports did not clear the independent-source test. In plain terms: earnings and the Fed are the material calendar risks; the premium should not be mistaken for protection.

The exit plan

• Take profit: buy back around $1.26–$1.58 after retaining roughly 50–60% of the $3.15 reference credit.
• Time exit: if the position is unresolved, close or roll around 14–21 DTE, roughly July 31 to August 7.
• Roll trigger: if PLTR closes below $115 with more than 21 DTE, reassess and consider only an out-and-down roll that still produces a credit.
• Assignment path: assignment means owning 100 shares at the $111.85 breakeven. Covered calls may continue the wheel, but they do not erase stock losses.

What could go wrong

1. Earnings gap: an August 3 growth or guidance disappointment could send PLTR through $115 before the option can be adjusted.
2. Valuation reset: a 64.0×–83.3× forward-P/E range leaves room for multiple compression even if revenue keeps growing.
3. Momentum reversal: RSI at 73.7 and elevated IV can both cool while the stock falls; the $315 credit is small beside the $11,185 capital at risk.