$SPCX shrugs off a 328M-share unlock; its $135 put pays 2.3%

The setup in 30 seconds

SpaceX ($SPCX) builds rockets and runs Starlink, the satellite internet service. It listed on Nasdaq on June 12 at a $135 IPO price. It closed as high as $211.39 on June 16, then fell to $108.27 on Aug. 5.

On Sept. 24, about 328 million insider shares were free to sell. The stock had already dropped 4.11% the day before. On unlock day it closed at $148.03, down just 0.22%. This morning it trades at $148.23.

That is the story: a big wave of supply hit, and buyers absorbed it. The $135 strike is the IPO price, a level the market has already fought over.

The trade

Snapshot: Sept. 25, 2026, 9:41 a.m. ET, Cboe delayed quotes (delta and implied volatility from Cboe). A Nasdaq quote at 9:57 a.m. showed the same $3.00 / $3.10 market. Rebuild the quote in your broker before acting on any of it.

Why this stock, why now

Technicals. RSI(14) is 52.2, dead neutral. The last close of $148.03 sits right on the 20-day average ($148.01) and above the 50-day ($135.57). There is no 200-day average: the stock has only 72 sessions of history. Volume ran at 0.81× its 20-day average on unlock day. In plain terms: no panic selling showed up, and the 50-day average sits right at the strike.

Valuation. A normal P/E does not work here. Analysts expect about $0.09 of earnings per share this quarter (Zacks). At roughly $1.9 trillion in market value, SpaceX trades on growth. Second-quarter revenue rose 92% to $7.8 billion, and Starlink passed 12 million subscribers. Space peers $RKLB and $ASTS are also priced on sales growth, not profits. In plain terms: you are paid to own a growth story at the IPO price, not a cheap stock.

Income. The put's implied volatility is 46.3%, and Cboe's 30-day IV is 45.06%. That is close to the 44.1% the stock actually moved over 20 days and well below the 72.9% over 60 days. There is no 3-month IV history yet for such a young listing. In plain terms: the premium is fair, not fat. The edge is the strike, not the price of the option.

Calendar. Starship's 14th test flight is planned for Sept. 28. PCE inflation lands Sept. 30, the jobs report Oct. 2, and the Fed meets Oct. 27–28. Earnings are estimated for Nov. 3 (Zacks, unconfirmed), four days after this put expires. More lockup expirations are scheduled through June 2027. In plain terms: no earnings inside the window, but a rocket test and two big macro prints are.

The exit plan

• Take profit: buy the put back near $1.53, about 50% of the $3.05 credit.
• Time exit: close or roll at 14 to 21 days to expiry, around Oct 9 to Oct 16, whatever the profit.
• Roll trigger: a close below $140.71, the 20-day low, means roll down and out for a credit or close.
• If assigned: you own 100 shares at a $131.95 net cost, below the IPO price, and can sell covered calls above that price.

What could go wrong

1. Volatility: this stock fell 49% from its June 16 high to its Aug. 5 low in seven weeks. A 10.98% cushion can go in a few sessions.
2. More supply: the Sept. 9 unlock was followed by a 3.9% drop, and more unlocks come through June 2027. Selling can arrive late, not on the day.
3. Rates and costs: the 10-year yield is near 5.2%, and capital spending jumped to $18.4 billion last quarter on AI. Richly valued growth stocks feel both first.

Beginner corner

Delta 0.23 is the market's rough guess, not a promise, that this put ends in the money. The IPO price is not a floor: $SPCX closed below $135 for weeks this summer. Only sell this put if owning $13,500 of SpaceX would feel fine.