$HOOD cools after a 19% bounce; its $104 put pays 2.9% in 35 days

The setup in 30 seconds

Robinhood ($HOOD) runs a trading app for stocks, options, crypto and prediction markets. It also owns the Bitstamp crypto exchange and sells a Gold subscription.

The stock slid to a $104.42 close on Sept. 16, then bounced 19% to $124.25 by Sept. 22. It has cooled since. Yesterday it closed at $120.82, and it trades at $118.69 this morning.

CEO Vlad Tenev sold about $32.5 million of stock on Sept. 21 under a preset trading plan. The Form 4 hit on Sept. 23, and the stock drifted lower. The $104 strike sits right on the Sept. 16 low and the 50-day average.

The trade

Snapshot: Sept. 25, 2026, 11:34 a.m. ET, Cboe delayed quotes (delta and implied volatility from Cboe). A Nasdaq quote at 11:50 a.m. showed the same $2.92 / $3.10 area. Rebuild the quote in your broker before acting on any of it.

Why this stock, why now

Technicals. RSI(14) is 59.0, warm but not stretched. Yesterday's $120.82 close sits above the 20-day average ($114.23), the 50-day ($103.98) and the 200-day ($94.71). Volume ran at 0.65× its 20-day average, so the pullback is quiet. In plain terms: the trend is up, and the strike sits where buyers stepped in twice this month, at $103.51 on Sept. 1 and $104.42 on Sept. 16.

Valuation. $HOOD is not cheap. It trades near 58× forward earnings, against about 34× for $IBKR and about 17× for $SCHW (valueinvesting.io). Growth explains part of it: in August, platform assets rose 26% from a year ago to $383.7 billion, and equity trading volume jumped 68%. In plain terms: you are paid to own a fast grower at a price 22% below its $152.46 high.

Income. The put's implied volatility is 62.0%, and Cboe's 30-day IV is 58.6%. The stock actually moved 72.4% annualized over 60 days and 77.8% over 20 days. In plain terms: the premium is rich in dollars, but the market is not overcharging for how wild this stock has been.

Calendar. Earnings are estimated for Nov. 4, after this put expires (Nasdaq/Zacks, not yet confirmed by Robinhood). $HOOD pays no dividend. PCE inflation lands Sept. 30, the jobs report Oct. 2, and the Fed meets Oct. 27–28. In plain terms: no earnings inside the window, but two big macro prints are.

The exit plan

• Take profit: buy the put back near $1.50, about 50% of the $3.005 credit.
• Time exit: close or roll at 14 to 21 days to expiry, around Oct 9 to Oct 16, whatever the profit.
• Roll trigger: a close below $110, where the mid-September selloff paused, means roll down and out for a credit or close.
• If assigned: you own 100 shares at a $101.00 net cost and can sell covered calls above that price.

What could go wrong

1. Volatility: $HOOD moves about 72% a year, annualized. It fell from $152.46 last October to $65.16 in March. A 14.91% cushion can go in a week.
2. Crypto and retail mood: crypto volume was down 38% from a year ago in August. A weekend crypto slide tends to hit $HOOD on Monday.
3. Valuation and headlines: at about 58× forward earnings, any growth scare hurts. Insider sales and questions about tokenized stocks have already knocked the stock this month.

Beginner corner

Delta 0.21 is the market's rough guess, not a promise, that this put ends in the money. Moving averages are not floors: $HOOD closed below its 50-day average as recently as August. Only sell this put if owning $10,400 of Robinhood would feel fine.