Futures steady as the 10-year holds near 5.2% and $AKAM jumps 21%
The 10-year sits at 5.17% after the 7-year sold at its highest yield since 1993. Oil eases on Hormuz talks, and $AKAM jumps 21% on an $11.6B Anthropic deal.
YieldCove Desk
3 min read
S&P 500 futures
7,773.25
+0.08%
Nasdaq 100 fut.
30,850.75
+0.27%
10-year yield
5.17%
+0.5 bp
VIX
15.55
-0.8%
WTI crude
$93.70
-1.0%
Gold
$4,311.50
+0.3%
What you need to know
- The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.17% after the 7-year note sold at 5.085%, its highest since 1993. Every stock gets priced against that number. - Oil is slipping about 1% on reports of a phased U.S.–Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Cheaper oil is the one thing that could take heat out of yields. - $AKAM is up about 21% pre-market after an $11.6 billion, seven-year computing deal with Anthropic. The AI spending story is still alive.
The bond selloff paused, but buyers still want more yield
Thursday's 7-year auction cleared at 5.085%, the highest since April 1993. Demand was soft: the bid-to-cover fell to 2.42 from 2.50 in August, and the sale tailed by about 0.7 basis points.
The 10-year yield touched 5.225% late Thursday, its highest since 2007, before easing. It sits at 5.17% this morning, with the 2-year at 4.90%. Mortgage rates followed: the 30-year fixed hit 7.45%, the highest since April 2024.
Fed officials gave bond buyers no comfort. New York Fed President John Williams called one more hike by year-end "a reasonable way of thinking about it." Philadelphia's Anna Paulson and Cleveland's Beth Hammack both said inflation is still too sticky. Futures price about a 68% chance of an October hike, down from about 73% on Wednesday.
Stocks shrugged it off, and futures are flat again
The S&P 500 closed down just 0.02% at 7,704.13 Thursday, and the Nasdaq was flat. The Dow lost 0.31% and is heading for a fourth losing week. Stocks started lower on the yield spike, then recovered when Reuters reported the Hormuz deal talks.
Data backed the Fed's hawks. Jobless claims fell to 197,000 against 201,000 expected. New home sales jumped to 684,000, well above the 615,000 forecast, even with 7% mortgages. A strong economy is good for earnings, but it keeps hikes on the table.
| Market | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 66,364.20 | +1.30% |
| Hang Seng | 24,507 | about -1% |
| Stoxx 600 | 639.95 | +0.55% (intraday) |
| Shanghai, Seoul | Closed | Holiday |
Japan rose for a fifth day, led by banks that earn more when yields climb. Hong Kong fell after the Trump–Xi meeting ended without a breakthrough on chips or Taiwan. The two sides did extend their trade truce to Jan. 10. Europe is higher, with banks leading.
Oil eases on Hormuz talk after a big Thursday jump
WTI is at $93.70, down about 1%, and Brent is at $106.29. Both rallied about 3% Thursday after Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia. The dip today follows reports that Iran could reopen Hormuz shipping if the U.S. ends its naval blockade.
The gap between Brent and WTI is near $12.60, the widest since May. Talk of a possible U.S. diesel export ban is holding WTI back. Gold is up 0.3% at $4,311.50, and the dollar index is slightly lower at 101.09.
Your watchlist
| Ticker | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| $AKAM | +21% pre-market | $11.6B, 7-year compute deal with Anthropic; Anthropic gets a warrant for up to about 5% of the company at $111.33 |
| $ORCL | -3.5% Thursday | Force-majeure notice on a New Mexico data-center project; second straight drop |
| $BE | -3.1% Thursday | Hit by the same Oracle data-center news; +2.6% pre-market |
| $NBIS | +7.4% Thursday | BNP Paribas Exane upgraded to Outperform, target $399; GPU prices rise 17–21% on Oct. 1 |
| $CRWV | +3.7% Thursday | JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight, target $125, citing firmer compute pricing |
| $META | +4.5% Thursday | Rallied after its Connect event showed new Muse AI agent features and devices |
| $CDNS | +4.2% Thursday | Expanded chip-design partnership with TSMC for AI chips |
| $MU | +1.3% pre-market | Citi raised its target to $1,300; results due Sept. 30 |
Costco ($COST) beat on its fiscal fourth quarter. Adjusted EPS was $6.60 against about $6.53 expected, and comparable sales rose 9.4%. The stock is nearly flat pre-market.
For wheel sellers
The VIX is only 15.55 while bond yields make headlines, so index premium stays thin. The richer premium sits in single names with big moves, like the AI-infrastructure stocks, and it is rich because the risk is real. With T-bills paying close to 5%, a put's premium has to beat that risk-free cash by enough to justify owning the stock at the strike.
What's next
| Time (ET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 5:15 | Fed's Williams speaks | More hike talk would lift yields |
| Before open | Tamboran Resources ($TBN) earnings | No watchlist names report today |
| 8:30 | Durable goods orders, Aug. (est. -0.3%, core +0.6%) | Business spending under higher rates |
| 9:20 | Fed's Schmid speaks | A known hawk on inflation |
| 10:00 | UMich sentiment, final Sept. (est. 47.4) | Watch the 4.6% inflation expectations |
| 14:00 | Fed's Hammack speaks | Her second talk this week on sticky inflation |
| Sept. 30 | $MU earnings, August PCE inflation | The biggest chip print and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge |
| Oct. 2, 8:30 | September jobs report | The last big test before the October meeting |
Sources
- [1]Stock market today: live updates (Sept. 24–25, 2026) — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [2]Real-time quotes: index futures, Treasury yields, VIX, oil, gold, dollar, overseas indices — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [3]Seven-year U.S. Treasury auction yield hits 33-year high — MarketScreener / Dow Jones · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [4]US weekly jobless claims decrease as labor market regains footing — Reuters via U.S. News · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [5]Fed's Williams says it's reasonable to see another hike — Reuters via AOL · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [6]Fed's Paulson says modest further rate increases may be warranted — Spokesman-Review · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [7]Fed's Hammack warns inflation pressures remain tilted to upside — Reuters via U.S. News · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [8]US and China extend trade truce — NBC News · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [9]Oil prices waver in face of Iran war truce and Houthi attacks — The National · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [10]Hong Kong stocks fall as tech shares slide, Trump-Xi summit in focus — Reuters via Business Recorder · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [11]Daily European equity opening news, Sept. 25, 2026 — Newsquawk · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [12]Akamai shares jump more than 20% on $11.6B Anthropic computing deal — SiliconANGLE · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [13]Stocks slide as Treasury yields climb; Oracle declares force majeure — The Motley Fool · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [14]Nebius surges, CoreWeave treads water as JPMorgan upgrade flags rising compute pricing — 24/7 Wall St. · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [15]Micron stock gets a big Wall Street boost ahead of earnings — The Motley Fool · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [16]Costco reports fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026 operating results — Costco Wholesale · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 1
- [17]Economic indicators calendar — U.S. Census Bureau · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 1
- [18]Earnings calendar, Sept. 25, 2026 — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-09-25T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Do your own research before trading.
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