Stocks hold flat as Hormuz hopes offset higher oil and yields
The 10-year hit 5.18% and oil rose 2.7%, yet a Hormuz deal report kept the S&P 500 flat. $AKAM jumped about 20% after hours on an $11.6B Anthropic deal.
YieldCove Desk
2 min read
S&P 500
7,704.13
-0.02%
Nasdaq
26,939.37
+0.01%
Dow
51,349.98
-0.31%
Russell 2000
2,835.57
-0.11%
VIX
15.67
+3.2%
10-year yield
5.18%
+7 bp
What you need to know
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.18%, and a $44 billion 7-year sale cleared at 5.085%, the highest since 1993. Borrowing costs are still climbing. - Oil jumped 2.7% after Houthi missiles targeted Saudi Arabia, then eased on a report of a phased Hormuz deal. That report pulled stocks back to flat. - After the bell, $AKAM rose about 20% on an $11.6 billion Anthropic cloud deal, and $COST beat on earnings.
A Hormuz report pulled stocks back to flat
Stocks spent the morning in the red as oil and yields rose together. Then Reuters reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were discussing a phased deal: Iran would allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. would end its naval blockade.
That was enough to erase most losses. The S&P 500 closed down 0.02% at 7,704.13, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.01%. The Dow lagged, down 0.31%. The VIX still rose 3.2% to 15.67, so traders kept paying up for protection.
Oil spiked on Houthi missiles, then gave some back
Brent hit $108.23 early after Houthi militants fired missiles at the Saudi cities of Yanbu and Taif. Saudi forces said they intercepted six. Yanbu is a key Red Sea export terminal, so the market took it seriously.
By the settle, WTI was up 2.7% at $94.61 and Brent up 3.4% at $106.60, according to CNBC. Brent is up more than 17% in September. Higher fuel costs feed straight into the inflation worry that is pushing yields up.
Yields kept climbing, and the 7-year sale confirmed it
The Treasury's official 10-year yield closed at 5.18%, up from 5.11% on Wednesday. The 2-year rose to 4.87%. Jobless claims fell to 197,000, below the 204,000 forecast, which says the job market is still tight enough for the Fed to keep hiking.
The $44 billion 7-year auction cleared at 5.085%, with a bid-to-cover of 2.42, down from 2.50 in August. The last 7-year sale paid 4.512%. Investors want far more to lend for seven years than they did a month ago.
| Sector | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Communication services ($XLC) | +1.27% | $META rallied on its Muse AI push |
| Health care ($XLV) | +0.63% | Defensive buying |
| Energy ($XLE) | +0.37% | Oil up 2.7% |
| Consumer staples ($XLP) | -0.89% | Bond-like stocks lose appeal as yields rise |
| Utilities ($XLU) | -0.98% | Same rate pressure |
| Materials ($XLB) | -1.19% | Worst sector of the day |
Oracle's data-center notice hit the AI build-out trade
$ORCL fell 3.5% after it sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its New Mexico data center. The notice protects Oracle if the campus misses its 2028 start. Oracle said the project remains on schedule. $BE, which will power the site with fuel cells, fell 3.1%.
Your watchlist
| Ticker | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| $AKAM | -6.8%, then +19.6% after hours | Signed an $11.6 billion, seven-year cloud deal with Anthropic after the close; it can grow by up to $9 billion more |
| $NBIS | +7.4% | BNP Paribas upgraded it to Outperform and lifted its target to $399; GPU price increases start Oct. 1 |
| $META | +4.5% | Its month-long rally extended on the Muse AI agent; Cantor raised its target to $860 |
| $ORCL | -3.5% | Force majeure notice on its Project Jupiter data center |
| $BE | -3.1% | Supplies the fuel cells for Project Jupiter |
Outside the watchlist, $COST beat after the close: $6.75 a share versus a $6.48 estimate, with sales up 11.2% to $93.9 billion. That includes a one-time $0.15 benefit from tariff refunds. The stock was flat after hours after a 0.9% slip in the session.
For wheel sellers
A VIX near 15.7 keeps index premium thin, while single names like $ORCL and $AKAM are moving 3% to 20% on news. With cash paying about 5%, a short put needs to earn clearly more than that to justify the stock risk. Check news and earnings dates before you sell, because one headline can wipe out a month of premium.
What's next
| Time (ET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Fri, pre-market | $AKAM reaction to the Anthropic deal | Shows how hard the market rewards AI capacity deals |
| Fri 8:30 | Durable goods orders (August) | A read on business spending as rates climb |
| Fri 10:00 | University of Michigan sentiment (September) | Consumer mood and inflation expectations |
| Fri | Xi's U.S. state visit ends | Any trade or chip-export headlines |
| Wed, Sept. 30 | $MU fiscal Q4 earnings | The next big AI memory test |
Sources
- [1]Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 2026 — U.S. Department of the Treasury · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 1
- [2]Auction results: 7-Year Note, CUSIP 91282CRM5 — TreasuryDirect · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 1
- [3]Akamai Announces $11.6 Billion Multi-year Agreement with Anthropic to Support Growing Demand — Akamai (GlobeNewswire) · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 1
- [4]Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Operating Results — Costco (GlobeNewswire) · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 1
- [5]Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq trims losses as hopes of Hormuz deal offset rising bond yields — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 2
- [6]Oil prices pull back from session highs after report of talks for phased reopening of Strait of Hormuz — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 2
- [7]Oracle sends 'force majeure' notice about data center project — stock drops 3% — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 2
- [8]U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Edge Lower to 197,000, Below Expectations — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 2
- [9]Nebius Stock Soars 8% as BNP Paribas Delivers Massive Price Target Hike — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 3
- [10]Meta Platforms stock rises as Muse drives analyst targets higher — ad-hoc-news · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 3
- [11]Index, sector ETF and stock quotes (delayed), Sept. 24 close — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-24 · Tier 2
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Do your own research before trading.
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