Nebius sales soar, but capacity delays and a bigger spending bill hit shares

What happened

Nebius delivered huge sales growth on November 12, but its outlook put the timing and cost of that growth under scrutiny. The AI cloud company reported third-quarter revenue of USD980.8 million, versus USD146.1 million a year earlier, and a USD37.5 million GAAP net loss from continuing operations. Its USD465.8 million adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure, not cash left after building data centers. Results (1)

The early market reaction reversed the previous day’s rally. Yahoo’s November 12 premarket observation at 09:28:16 ET showed NBIS at USD120.30, down USD34.39, or 22.23%, from its USD154.69 November 11 close. These are explicitly dated observations, not live prices or a forecast of the closing return. Premarket snapshot (3)

November 11 daily bars showed 39.83 million shares traded, compared with a 25.69 million average over the preceding 20 sessions: 1.55 times normal. That comparison describes yesterday’s full session, not today’s premarket activity; Yahoo’s separate quote-volume field differed, so this article consistently uses its saved daily bars. The stock had gained 15.44% on November 11. Daily bars (4)

Why the outlook matters more than the growth rate

Management now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its USD3.0 billion–USD3.4 billion range. Some third-party capacity previously expected this year has moved into the first half of 2027, while the company’s expected annualized revenue pace above USD7 billion shifts to February 2027. That run-rate measure annualizes a month; it is not revenue already earned over a year. Shareholder letter (2)

The letter specifically says remaining New Jersey capacity tranches contracted with Microsoft are scheduled for the second quarter of 2027. It also raises expected 2026 capital spending to approximately USD27 billion from USD20 billion–USD25 billion, an 8% increase over the old upper end. The tension is straightforward: construction spending is rising while some customer revenue arrives later. Shareholder letter (2)

Revenue quality also deserves attention: approximately USD325 million, or 33.14% of quarterly sales, came from non-recurring revenue in Nebius’s asset-light model. Management expects such activities to become more regular as partnerships grow, but that does not make this quarter’s amount recurring today. The release separately reports USD273.0 million of operating cash outflow from continuing operations. Shareholder letter (2) Results (1)

There is a counterweight to the funding concern. Nebius expects customer prepayments and asset-backed financing against investment-grade contracts to cover 75%–85% of its projected 2027 capital spending. That is management’s funding expectation, not a guarantee that every facility or financing closes on schedule. Shareholder letter (2)

The sector backdrop

The prior session’s gains were not confined to Nebius: CoreWeave rose 24.71% and IREN gained 5.63%. That shared rebound provides context, not proof that the businesses have identical contracts, funding needs or earnings quality. Nebius’s capacity and spending disclosures still need company-specific analysis. CoreWeave bars (5) IREN bars (6)

Financing conditions remain relevant to a capital-heavy business. The October CPI release, published November 10, showed U.S. consumer prices rising 0.4% month over month and prices excluding food and energy rising 0.3%, both seasonally adjusted. Those figures are macro background, not evidence that inflation caused this particular selloff. BLS CPI (8)

What it means for option sellers

Selling a cash-secured put after a large fall exchanges a premium for the obligation to buy shares at the strike if assigned. In the wheel, a subsequent covered call limits upside but does not remove the downside of owning the stock. A lower share price alone does not make that obligation attractive. Put mechanics (10) Covered-call mechanics (11)

A Cboe snapshot retrieved at approximately 09:28 ET displayed 100.794% 30-day implied volatility, but its last-trade field was dated November 11. It is background only, not a verified post-earnings IV reading; post-report IV and IV rank were not established. No actual option premium, delta or probability is claimed here. Cboe snapshot (7)

• Risk: another capacity delay could push revenue further out while spending continues.
• Risk: projected customer funding might arrive later or on different terms than expected.
• Review plan: rebuild live quotes, spreads and the catalyst calendar before evaluating any premium; assess the downside of assignment rather than relying on a rebound.

What to watch next

• November 13 at 08:30 ET: October U.S. Producer Price Index, according to the BLS calendar. BLS calendar (9)
• February 2027: management’s revised checkpoint for an annualized revenue run rate above USD7 billion. Shareholder letter (2)
• Second quarter of 2027: remaining New Jersey Microsoft capacity tranches are scheduled; next earnings date remains unconfirmed in the reviewed issuer calendar. Shareholder letter (2) Issuer calendar (15)

Photo: archival NERSC server racks photographed in 2011, not a Nebius facility. Wikimedia source (12); Chiara Coetzee’s photograph (13); CC0 1.0 (14); cropped, resized and JPEG re-encoded.