PLTR: rich IV, with earnings inside the wheel window

Why PLTR is on this screen

Palantir describes its business as software that helps organizations integrate data, decisions and operations at scale. Its four principal platforms are Gotham, Foundry, Apollo and AIP, serving government and commercial work. The wheel question is not whether that story is interesting; it is whether today's option premium compensates for the stock's wide trading range and the next earnings event.

The price trend is a rebound, not a clean uptrend. Nasdaq history shows a $160.65 close on June 1, a $107.27 close on June 25, and a $130.04 close on July 13. The Cboe chain snapshot then carried a $133.37 underlying reference at 3:55 p.m. ET on July 14. Recent lows around $119–$126—including $119.20 on June 22, $119.35 on July 1, $124.81 on July 9 and $125.77 on July 10—make that band a reclaimed reference zone. It is not a proven floor.

Volatility is unusually elevated

The current-run checks agree that implied volatility is above PLTR's recent regime. Cboe showed 30-day IV at 66.68%. AlphaQuery's July 13 observation was 65.98%, versus a 53.40% average across 62 sessions from April 14 through July 13. Barchart showed 64.93% current weighted IV, a 53.95% three-month average, a 98th-percentile reading and a 100.00% three-month rank. That supports the word rich: the volatility level is materially above its three-month norm, not merely high in absolute terms.

The August 21 wheel reference

These two strikes bracket roughly 30 delta. The $120 put had a 1.94% bid-ask spread at the midpoint and the deeper cushion; its $5.15 midpoint equals a 4.29% gross credit-to-collateral reference before fees and assignment risk. The $125 put had a 2.88% spread and a larger $6.95 midpoint, or 5.56% of strike collateral, but less room to the underlying. One contract represents 100 shares: the listed midpoints correspond to $515 and $695 of gross illustrative credit, while cash-secured collateral is $12,000 and $12,500 before credit. None of those midpoints is an execution price.

Strike-zone reasoning

The $120–$125 bracket lines up with the recently reclaimed $119–$126 price area without pretending that the June selloff is fully repaired. At the chain's $133.37 reference, the $120 strike sat 10.02% lower and the $125 strike 6.28% lower. The midpoint breakevens moved the ownership tests to $114.85 and $118.05. That is the useful distinction: $120 offered the cleaner liquidity/cushion balance in this snapshot, while $125 exchanged some cushion for a larger credit. Both still carry the same earnings gap risk.

Bottom line

PLTR survives this screen because the chain is liquid, the near-30-delta August 21 puts carry meaningful open interest and volume, and two independent three-month comparisons confirm unusually elevated IV. The counterweight is equally clear: the stock has already travelled from $160.65 to $107.27 and back above $130 since June 1, and the expiry crosses an estimated earnings date. This is an educational volatility-and-ownership framework—not a recommendation or an order instruction.