S&P 500 futures
7,753.00
+0.27%
Nasdaq 100 fut.
30,682.25
+0.23%
US 10-year
5.22%
-3.8 bp
VIX (Tue close)
16.04
-0.03
WTI crude
$89.54
+0.18%
Gold (Dec)
$4,225.80
+1.10%
What you need to know
- Bonds are finally giving stocks a break. The 10-year eased to 5.22% after Tuesday's 5.293% high, and October hike odds fell to 49% from 71% on Monday.
- August PCE lands at 8:30 a.m. ET. It is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, so a hot core print could undo this morning's relief.
- $MU reports after the close. Micron guided to $50.0B of revenue and $31.00 of EPS, and options price a move of roughly 7% to 8%.
Futures bounced because the Fed sounded less rushed
At about 4:00 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.27% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.23%. Dow futures led with a 0.46% gain. That follows a second straight loss on Tuesday, when the S&P 500 slipped 0.17% to 7,670.84.
The shift came from the Fed. New York Fed President John Williams said late Tuesday there is "no need for urgency" before the October meeting. CME FedWatch odds of a quarter-point hike on Oct. 28 dropped to 49%, CNBC reported, from 71% on Monday.
Weak data helped too. Conference Board confidence fell to 81.9 in September, well below the 89 economists expected. Job openings slipped to about 7.1 million in August, according to the Labor Department.
Yields eased from multi-decade highs, but they are still high
The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.22%, down 3.8 basis points. On Tuesday it touched 5.293%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year hit 5.613%, its highest since June 2002, before easing to 5.56% overnight. The 2-year sat at 4.87%.
A few basis points is a pause, not a turn. The Fed's target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, and the 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.58% on Tuesday, the highest since November 2023.
Oil kept its Tuesday drop, and gold bounced off a seven-week low
November WTI traded at $89.54, up 0.18%, after sliding 3.5% on Tuesday. Brent was $102.76. Saudi exports from Red Sea ports are recovering after a pipeline attack earlier this month, CNBC reported, while US-Iran talks through mediators continue.
December gold rose 1.10% to $4,225.80 as yields and the dollar eased. The dollar index dipped 0.09% to 101.28. Bitcoin was near $83,243, down 0.36%.
Asia and Europe rose on the last day of the quarter
| Market | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 66,753.72 | +1.94% |
| Hang Seng (close) | 24,600.88 | +0.32% |
| Shanghai Composite (close) | 3,842.20 | +0.31% |
| KOSPI (close) | 6,838.04 | -0.48% |
| Stoxx 600 (early) | 642.60 | +0.71% |
| DAX (early) | 25,566.43 | +0.66% |
China's official factory PMI rose to 50.1 from 49.8, its first expansion in three months. Today also closes the third quarter. Through Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up 2.29% for the quarter, the Nasdaq up 2.23% and the Dow down 1.85%.
Your watchlist
| Ticker | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| $MU | +1.05% Tue, +0.7% pre-market | Reports after the close, call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Guidance: $50.0B revenue and $31.00 EPS; options imply about a 7% to 8% move. |
| $HOOD | +2.2% pre-market | After Tuesday's close it announced weekend stock and ETF trading plus crypto perpetual futures. |
| $BE | +10.80% Tue | Leasing another 158,000 sq ft in Fremont. RBC rates it Outperform with a $335 target. |
| $MRVL | +4.51% Tue | Citi reiterated Buy and a $275 target ahead of the Oct. 6 investor day. |
| $ORCL | +3.91% Tue | Launched Fusion Claw, an AI agent runtime across 25 of its business apps. |
| $META | +3.24% Tue | Launched Muse for Small Business, an AI agent that links to Slack, Zoom and Canva. |
| $AAPL | -2.66% Tue | BofA kept Buy but warned Meta's Muse agent could pull shopping and discovery away from Apple. |
| $TSLA | -1.29% Tue | Q3 deliveries come Friday. Tesla's compiled consensus is 461,974, about 7% below a year ago. |
| $GOOGL | -0.53% Tue | Appealed two EU orders on rival AI access to Android and sharing search data. |
| $ENPH | +2.98% Tue | Citi kept Neutral and cut its target to $37 from $40. |
Pre-market moves are from thin trading around 4:00 a.m. ET, so treat them as a rough guide.
For wheel sellers
A VIX near 16 and a 10-year at 5.22% mean both put premiums and the cash behind them still pay well. The risk sits in the calendar: PCE at 8:30, $MU tonight and payrolls Friday. A $MU put held through the print is paid for a 7% to 8% move, so a strike inside that range carries real gap risk.
What's next
| Time (ET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Before the open | Earnings: $JBL, $FDS, $CAG, $CALM | $JBL is a read on AI server demand. |
| 8:15 a.m. | ADP employment (Sept), prior 38K | First private jobs read before Friday's payrolls. |
| 8:30 a.m. | PCE prices (Aug): core expected +0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y | The Fed's preferred gauge. A hot print could revive October hike bets. |
| 8:30 a.m. | Q2 GDP third estimate, expected 1.5% (prior 2.1%), plus corporate profits | Shows how much the economy slowed in the spring. |
| 9:45 a.m. | Chicago PMI, expected 51.2 (prior 47.1) | A last factory check before ISM on Thursday. |
| 10:30 a.m. | EIA crude inventories | Oil fell 3.5% Tuesday; a big build would add pressure. |
| 3:25 p.m. | Fed Governor Cook on the rural economy | Any hint on the October meeting moves yields. |
| 4:00 p.m. | Q3 and September end | Quarter-end rebalancing can swing the close. |
| After the close | Earnings: $MU (call 4:30 p.m.), $PRGS | $MU sets the tone for chip and memory names. |
| Friday | September payrolls; $TSLA Q3 deliveries | The week's biggest data and delivery checks. |
Sources
- [1]Stock market today: futures, yields and overnight moves (live updates) — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 2
- [2]Dow posts back-to-back losses as Treasury yields continue their ascent — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 2
- [3]Gold prices (Sept. 30) — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 2
- [4]VIX delayed quote — Cboe · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [5]Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, August 2026 — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [6]Release schedule — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [7]Calendar: September 2026 — Federal Reserve Board · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [8]Micron fiscal Q3 2026 results and Q4 guidance (Exhibit 99.1) — Micron Technology / SEC · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [9]Micron options signal 7.7% move ahead of Q4 earnings — GuruFocus · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [10]Earnings calendar, Sept. 30, 2026 — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [11]ADP jobs data, GDP, core PCE and oil inventories due Wednesday — Investing.com · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [12]Robinhood debuts weekend trading and perpetual futures — Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 2
- [13]Why is Bloom Energy stock surging today — Investing.com · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [14]Why Marvell Technology stock is moving — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [15]Why Oracle stock is trading higher — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [16]Meta expands Muse AI agent to small businesses — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [17]Apple falls 2% as Bank of America flags Meta's Muse — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [18]Tesla Q3 2026 delivery consensus: 462,000 — Drive Tesla Canada · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [19]Alphabet stock slips as Google appeals EU orders — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [20]Enphase Energy price target lowered to $37 from $40 at Citi — TipRanks / The Fly · Accessed 2026-09-30T04:10:00-04:00 · Tier 3
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Do your own research before trading.
