S&P 500
7,670.84
-0.17%
Nasdaq
26,797.54
-0.09%
Dow
51,349.92
-0.26%
Russell 2000
2,807.92
-0.35%
VIX
16.04
-0.03
US 10-year
5.26%
+2 bp
What you need to know
- Consumers turned gloomy. Confidence fell to 81.9, well below the 89 expected, and job openings slipped to 7.10 million.
- Long bonds ignored it. The 30-year hit its highest yield since 2002, so weak data did not bring rate relief.
- Oil fell 3.95% to $88.94 as Saudi exports resumed through a key pipeline, pulling energy stocks to the bottom of the day.
Shoppers got gloomier, but long bonds didn't get the memo
The Conference Board's confidence index dropped to 81.9 from a revised 88.6. Economists expected 89. The board said people's view of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024.
Job openings also cooled. August JOLTS showed 7.10 million openings, below the 7.23 million forecast and July's revised 7.34 million. Normally, soft data like this pulls yields down.
Only the short end listened. The 2-year yield fell 3 bp to 4.89%. The 10-year rose 2 bp to 5.26%, and the 30-year closed at 5.59% after touching its highest level since 2002 during the day. Long bonds still want more pay for the risk of sticky inflation.
Oil gave back 4% as Saudi flows resumed
November WTI settled at $88.94, down 3.95%. Saudi Arabia resumed exports through its East-West pipeline, and U.S. and Iranian officials met with mediators to restart talks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Yahoo Finance reported.
Gold bounced 1.12% to $4,215 after Monday's 4% drop. The dollar index rose 0.18% to 101.38. Cheaper oil hit energy stocks, while utilities led.
| Sector | ETF | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | $XLU | +1.17% |
| Communication | $XLC | +0.26% |
| Industrials | $XLI | +0.21% |
| Staples | $XLP | -0.52% |
| Materials | $XLB | -0.75% |
| Energy | $XLE | -0.90% |
Carnival showed that vacations still sell
Gloomy survey or not, people are still booking cruises. Carnival ($CCL) jumped 13.43% to $25.11 after record third-quarter results: adjusted EPS of $1.43 on $8.44 billion of revenue, both above estimates. The company said 2027 is already half booked at record prices.
AI stayed in the headlines too. Reuters reported that Anthropic's IPO prospectus lists $518 billion in planned cloud and infrastructure spending, at a possible valuation above $2 trillion. That kind of number keeps the data-center build-out story alive.
Your watchlist
| Ticker | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| $BE | +10.80% | Fuel-cell stocks bounced after last week's selloff. Bloom says Oracle is still committed to the Project Jupiter fuel-cell contract. |
| $MRVL | +4.51% | No company news. Rose with AI-infrastructure names on the day Anthropic's $518B compute plan came out. |
| $ORCL | +3.91% | No company news. Joined the AI-infrastructure bid; Project Jupiter questions are still open. |
| $META | +3.24% | Won back part of Monday's 4.8% drop. Bank of America called its Muse shopping agent a new threat to Apple. |
| $AAPL | -2.66% | Bank of America warned AI agents like Muse could pull shopping away from Apple, but kept its Buy rating. |
For wheel sellers
The VIX sits near 16 while cash earns more than 5% on long bonds, so put premium and the cash behind it both pay decently. The next 72 hours are crowded: PCE and $MU on Wednesday, then payrolls on Friday. A put sold before those events carries their risk in the premium, so size and strike choice matter more than usual.
What's next
| Time (ET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Wed 8:30 | Q2 GDP (third estimate) and August personal income and outlays, including PCE | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with an October hike still in play |
| Wed after close | Micron ($MU) fiscal Q4 results | The biggest AI memory print of the week, and a read on AI demand |
| Fri 8:30 | September jobs report | The last big test of the job market before the Oct. 28 Fed meeting |
| Fri | Tesla ($TSLA) Q3 deliveries | A read on EV demand after last week's delivery-estimate cuts |
Sources
- [1]Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq wobble as 30-year Treasury yield climbs (Sept. 29, 2026) — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-29 · Tier 2
- [2]Stock Market Today (Sept. 29, 2026): S&P 500 falls on easing oil — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-29 · Tier 2
- [3]Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 2026 — U.S. Department of the Treasury · Accessed 2026-09-29 · Tier 1
- [4]Index, ETF and stock quotes (delayed close) — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-29 · Tier 2
- [5]Anthropic's IPO prospectus sharpens focus on AI valuations — Reuters via Investing.com · Accessed 2026-09-29 · Tier 2
- [6]Stock Market Today, Sept. 29: Carnival surges 13% on record bookings — The Motley Fool · Accessed 2026-09-29 · Tier 3
- [7]Bloom Energy rallies 11% as fuel cell selloff reverses — 24/7 Wall St. · Accessed 2026-09-29 · Tier 3
- [8]Apple stock falls after Bank of America flags a new AI threat — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-29 · Tier 2
- [9]BEA release schedule — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Accessed 2026-09-29 · Tier 1
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Do your own research before trading.
