Futures slip with the 10-year stuck above 5% as Trump and Xi meet
S&P futures are down 0.47% and the 10-year yield sits at 5.13%. Jobless claims, a 7-year auction and $COST earnings test a market braced for an October hike.
YieldCove Desk
2 min read
S&P 500 futures
7,736.25
-0.47%
Nasdaq 100 fut.
30,572
-0.63%
10-year yield
5.13%
+1.5 bp
VIX
15.82
+4.2%
WTI crude
$92.46
+0.3%
Gold
$4,314.90
-0.1%
What you need to know
- The 10-year Treasury yield is holding at 5.13%, near its highest since 2007. Every stock valuation gets measured against that number. - Futures point to a third soft open: S&P 500 futures are down 0.47% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.63%. Rate-sensitive tech is still leading the way down. - Today brings jobless claims at 8:30, a $44 billion 7-year auction at 1:00 and $COST earnings after the close. Any one of them can move yields again.
Yields refused to back off overnight
Wednesday's jump in yields did not reverse. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 5.13% early this morning, up another 1.5 basis points after Wednesday's 14 bp surge. The 2-year yield was steady at 4.89%.
The trigger was a hot business survey, a weak 5-year auction and Fed Governor Michael Barr saying more hikes are likely needed. Futures traders put the odds of an October hike at about 73% on Wednesday. When cash pays 5%, investors demand more from stocks, and high-multiple names feel it first.
The pressure spread to Japan. Its 10-year government bond yield rose above 3% to a 30-year high after the Treasury selloff. Higher yields everywhere make it harder for one market to rally alone.
Asia was mixed and Europe barely moved
| Market | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 65,513.99 | +0.76% (first session since Sept. 18) |
| Hang Seng | 24,776.90 | -0.23% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,888.37 | -1.22% |
| Stoxx 600 | 638.97 | -0.15% |
Japan reopened after a three-day holiday, and chip and AI names led the Nikkei higher. China's stocks fell 1.2% because the trade-truce extension was shorter than investors hoped. Europe was nearly flat, and the Swiss National Bank held its rate at 0% as expected.
Trump and Xi meet today with a short truce in hand
President Trump hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House today, during Xi's Sept. 23–25 state visit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a two-month extension of the trade truce, to Jan. 10.
Two months is not much runway. Chip stocks with China exposure will trade on any headline about export rules. Oil is steady: WTI is at $92.46 and November Brent at $103.82, while traders wait on U.S.–Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz.
Jobless claims and a 7-year auction set the tone
Economists expect 201,000 initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., up from 196,000. A low number says the job market is still tight, which backs the case for another hike. New home sales follow at 10:00, forecast at 615,000, a live test of 7% mortgage rates.
The Treasury sells $44 billion of 7-year notes at 1:00 p.m. The last one cleared at 4.512%. After Wednesday's weak 5-year sale, a second soft auction would tell traders buyers still want a higher yield.
Your watchlist
| Ticker | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| $SPCX | -0.3% pre-market | About 328M shares unlock today; President Gwynne Shotwell plans to sell 342,170 shares (about $52M) |
| $META | +1.0% after hours | New AI agent features and devices unveiled Wednesday |
| $GOOGL | -3.8% Wednesday | Worries about Meta's Muse AI app competing with search, plus rising yields |
| $PLTR | +3.7% Wednesday | Rosenblatt argued the FAA's AI air-traffic rollout could still help Palantir; the main $875M contract went to another firm in June |
| $MU | -1.4% pre-market | Reports fiscal Q4 results Sept. 30 after the close |
For wheel sellers
The VIX is 15.82, so index premium is still thin. The juicier premium sits in rate-sensitive and high-multiple names, and it is high because those stocks keep sliding. With a hike in play and cash paying about 5%, a put's premium has to beat that risk-free return by enough to justify owning the stock at your strike.
What's next
| Time (ET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Before open | Darden ($DRI), TD Synnex ($SNX), BlackBerry ($BB) earnings | Restaurants and IT spending read |
| 8:30 | Initial jobless claims (est. 201K) | A tight job market backs more hikes |
| 10:00 | New home sales (est. 615K) | How housing handles 7%+ mortgages |
| During the day | Trump–Xi meeting at the White House | Trade and chip-export headlines |
| During the day | Fed's Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson | Any push-back on an October hike |
| 13:00 | $44B 7-year note auction | A weak sale would lift yields again |
| After close | Costco ($COST) earnings (EPS est. $6.48) | A read on the consumer as borrowing costs rise |
| Fri 8:30 | Durable goods orders (Aug.) | Business spending under higher rates |
Micron ($MU) reports on Sept. 30, the same morning as the August PCE inflation report.
Sources
- [1]E-mini S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 futures and index quotes — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [2]US 10-year Treasury yield quote — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [3]Treasury yields, oil and stocks after Barr comments — NBC News · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [4]Market sees next Fed hike in October following Barr comments — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [5]Japan's 10-year JGB yield hits 30-year high after Treasury selloff — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [6]Japan stock market — Trading Economics · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [7]China stock market — Trading Economics · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [8]SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at 0% — investingLive · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [9]Trump hosts Xi for state visit — The National · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 2
- [10]Jobless claims, building permits and new home sales due Thursday — Investing.com · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [11]Upcoming auctions — TreasuryDirect · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 1
- [12]Economic indicator calendar — U.S. Census Bureau · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 1
- [13]Release schedule — Bureau of Economic Analysis · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 1
- [14]US stock futures dip after high yields batter tech; Trump-Xi summit begins — Investing.com · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [15]SpaceX stock slips ahead of 328M share unlock — TipRanks · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [16]Palantir and the FAA's $875 million AI deal — Benzinga · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [17]Alphabet stock dips: here's what you need to know — Benzinga · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
- [18]Micron to report fiscal fourth quarter results on September 30, 2026 — Micron Technology via GlobeNewswire · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 1
- [19]Costco reports Q4 earnings on Sept 24: what analysts expect — TipRanks · Accessed 2026-09-24T08:15:00Z · Tier 3
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Do your own research before trading.
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