S&P 500 futures
7,769.75
-0.44%
Nasdaq 100 fut.
30,593.75
-0.96%
US 10-year
5.21%
+3 bp
VIX
16.18
+1.31
WTI crude
$94.44
+2.20%
Gold
$4,186.70
-3.11%
What you need to know
- Oil is up again. Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, so Brent is back near $107 and inflation worries return.
- Yields stay near 2007 highs. The 10-year is at 5.21% and markets now lean toward a Fed hike in October, which is why gold fell 3%.
- A heavy week starts soft. Nasdaq futures are down about 1% ahead of PCE on Wednesday, $MU earnings that night and the jobs report on Friday.
Trump said no to Iran's Hormuz offer, and oil went back up
Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week and restart nuclear talks. In return it wanted the US naval blockade lifted and oil sanctions waived. Trump rejected it on Saturday, saying the terms "would not be acceptable", CBS News reported.
He also said he expects talks to resume this week, and that more strikes remain possible. Traders priced the risk, not the hope. WTI is up 2.2% at $94.44 and Brent is up 2.5% at $106.88. Friday's rally had been built on the opposite bet: that a deal was close.
Higher oil keeps the Fed hike talk alive
Expensive oil feeds straight into inflation expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.21%, up 3 basis points, and the 2-year is at 4.91%, up about 5. Reuters reported that markets now price roughly a 68% chance of a Fed hike in October.
That repricing hit the assets that do not pay a yield. Gold fell 3.1% to $4,186.70, its lowest since early August, and bitcoin slipped 2.1% to about $82,900. The dollar index is flat at 101.04.
Asia sold its chip winners; Europe held up
Korea's KOSPI fell 2.7% on its first day back from the Chuseok holiday, as traders took profits in Samsung and SK hynix. Chinese stocks fell to start a holiday-shortened week. Europe shrugged it off, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.4%.
| Market | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 65,877.62 | -0.73% |
| KOSPI (close) | 6,889.74 | -2.70% |
| Shanghai Composite (close) | 3,823.62 | -1.67% |
| Hang Seng | 24,647.15 | +0.56% |
| Stoxx 600 | 641.15 | +0.39% |
Friday's calm is already fading
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,743.41, up 0.51%, for a 1.21% weekly gain. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.48% and the Dow jumped 0.93%, ending a three-week losing streak. Most of that came from the oil pullback that reversed over the weekend.
The VIX closed Friday at 14.87. In overnight trading it is back at 16.18, up almost 9%. That is still a modest level, but it tells you the market wants more insurance going into a data-heavy week.
Your watchlist
| Ticker | What happened | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| $SPCX | Starship Flight 14, the first orbital attempt, is targeted for 8:15 ET from Starbase. | A binary headline before the open, with read-through to $RKLB and $ASTS. |
| $MU | Reports fiscal Q4 on Wednesday after the close; consensus EPS is $31.24. | The watchlist's big event this week, so expect rich option premiums. |
| $BE | Rose 8.27% Friday to $288.70 as analysts lifted targets after its S&P 500 entry. | Bounced back from Thursday's Oracle-driven dip. |
| $CRDO | Rose 7.65% Friday to $210.97 with no new filing. | AI-networking momentum, not fresh news. |
| $AEHR | Rose 7.15% Friday to $104.39 on a new Outperform rating from Oppenheimer. | Earnings are expected around Oct 5 (estimated). |
| $NBIS | Its 17–21% GPU price increase takes effect Oct 1. | A live test of AI-compute pricing power this week. |
For wheel sellers
The VIX is back above 16 and yields are rising, so put premiums are fatter than on Friday. The risk is event-driven: PCE on Wednesday, $MU that night and payrolls Friday all land inside a one-week expiry. Many premium sellers prefer to wait for the data or go past Oct 2, rather than sell short-dated puts into three catalysts.
What's next
| When (ET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 8:15 | Fed Vice Chair Bowman (bank supervision) | Any read on the rate path after the yield spike |
| Mon 8:15 | Starship Flight 14 launch window opens | Headline risk for $SPCX, $RKLB, $ASTS |
| Mon 10:05 | Fed Governor Barr on the outlook and housing | Housing is where 5% yields bite first |
| Mon 10:30 | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey (usual time) | An early read on factories and prices |
| Mon after close | Jefferies ($JEF), Vail Resorts ($MTN) | Dealmaking and consumer travel demand |
| Tue before open | Carnival ($CCL), CarMax ($KMX) | Fuel costs and the consumer |
| Tue 10:00 | JOLTS job openings, consumer confidence | Labor demand ahead of Friday's payrolls |
| Wed 8:30 | PCE inflation (August) and Q2 GDP third estimate | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge |
| Wed after close | Micron ($MU) fiscal Q4 | The AI memory cycle, and a watchlist name |
| Thu before open / after close | Accenture ($ACN) / Nike ($NKE) | AI services demand and the global shopper |
| Fri 8:30 | September jobs report | The last big input before the October Fed meeting |
Sources
- [1]CNBC quote feed (futures, yields, VIX, oil, gold, bitcoin, DXY, overseas indexes), snapshot 04:00-04:10 ET — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 2
- [2]S&P 500 index delayed quote (Friday close 7,743.41) — Cboe · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [3]VIX index delayed quote — Cboe · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [4]Trump rejects Iran's 7-day Strait of Hormuz proposal (live updates) — CBS News · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 2
- [5]Stocks cautious in Asia, oil gains (Reuters via Yahoo Finance) — Reuters · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 2
- [6]Forex today: gold slumps below $4,200 on hawkish Fed outlook, Mideast tensions — FXStreet · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [7]KOSPI falls 2.70% to close at 6,889.74 — Seoul Economic Daily · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [8]Stock market today, Friday September 25 — Yahoo Finance · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 2
- [9]Federal Reserve calendar, September 2026 — Federal Reserve · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [10]BEA release schedule — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [11]Employment Situation release schedule — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [12]Micron Technology to report fiscal fourth quarter results on September 30, 2026 — Micron via GlobeNewswire · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 1
- [13]SpaceX pins hopes on Starship's first orbital test launch — Spectrum News 13 · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 3
- [14]Earnings calendar, week of September 28 — Nasdaq · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 2
- [15]Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) news, September 25 — StocksToTrade · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 4
- [16]Bloom Energy (BE) news, September 25 — StocksToTrade · Accessed 2026-09-28T04:15:00-04:00 · Tier 4
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Do your own research before trading.
