S&P 500 futures
7,743.75
-0.04%
Nasdaq 100 fut.
30,585.25
+0.06%
US 10-year
5.24%
-0.4 bp
VIX
16.17
+0.10
WTI crude
$93.36
+0.82%
Gold (Dec)
$4,171.90
+0.08%
What you need to know
- Stocks are catching their breath. Futures are flat after Monday's 0.77% drop, but the 10-year still sits at 5.24%, near its highest since 2007.
- The job market gets tested at 10:00. JOLTS openings and consumer confidence are the first of four big reports before Friday's payrolls.
- Michael Burry swapped his AI shorts for puts, including $MU, two days before Micron reports. It shows how much hangs on that print.
Yields paused near a 19-year high, and stocks paused with them
As of about 4:00 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were down 0.04% and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.06%. Dow futures slipped 0.11%. After Monday's selloff, that reads as a pause, not a rebound.
Bonds are still in charge. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24%, barely changed, after touching 5.27% on Monday, the highest since 2007. The 2-year rose to 4.94%, and the 30-year held near 5.55%.
The Fed's target range is 3.75% to 4.00% after September's quarter-point hike. Futures price roughly a 70% to 75% chance of another hike on Oct. 28, based on CME FedWatch figures cited by Reuters. Governor Cook said Monday the job market looks able to handle higher rates.
Oil rose again on Iran, while gold steadied after its 4% fall
November WTI traded at $93.36, up 0.82%, and November Brent at $106.22, up 0.89%. Iran said it held indirect talks with the US through Qatari mediators, but traders still worry the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz drags on, CNBC reported.
December gold was flat at $4,171.90 after Monday's 4% drop. When cash and bonds pay over 5%, gold, which pays nothing, has a harder time. The dollar index edged up 0.18% to 101.38, and bitcoin was near $84,000.
Overseas, Asia slipped and Europe leaned on its chip stocks
| Market | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 (close) | 65,481.27 | -0.60% |
| KOSPI (close) | 6,870.81 | -0.27% |
| Shanghai Composite (close) | 3,830.45 | +0.18% |
| Hang Seng (late) | 24,508.86 | -0.54% |
| Stoxx 600 (early) | 641.01 | +0.36% |
Australia's central bank raised rates by a quarter point to 4.60%, a 15-year high, and said more hikes are possible. It is one more sign that central banks are still fighting oil-driven inflation.
In Europe, chip stocks led after Reuters reported that Anthropic's IPO filing targets a valuation above $2 trillion. In the US, $AMD agreed to buy Fei-Fei Li's World Labs for $8.2 billion, and $SMMT jumped about 22% before the bell on a $2 billion AstraZeneca investment.
Your watchlist
| Ticker | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| $MU | +1.8% pre-market | Burry now holds June puts near a $500 strike. Results are due Wednesday after the close; the company guided to about $50B of quarterly revenue and $31 of EPS. |
| $NBIS | n/a | Burry also bought June puts, and said the AI bubble may burst sooner than he thought. |
| $TSLA | +0.4% pre-market | The Roadster reveal moved to Oct. 15 on weather. A European safety group urged the EU to reject FSD. Q3 deliveries come Friday. |
| $META | flat | Signed an AI computing deal with Australia's Firmus for Southeast Asia. Zuckerberg joins a White House AI lunch today. |
| $GOOGL | -0.3% pre-market | Appealed two EU orders to share search data and open Android to rival AI apps. |
| $HOOD | +0.7% pre-market | Barclays kept Overweight and a $105 target and expects a Q3 trading-revenue beat led by crypto. |
| $ASTS | +0.8% pre-market | Filed a change-of-control severance policy. Some traders read it as buyout talk; the filing says nothing about a deal. |
| $SHOP | -0.6% pre-market | Opened checkout to browser AI agents across its merchants. |
Pre-market moves are from thin trading around 4:15 a.m. ET, so treat them as a rough guide.
For wheel sellers
A VIX near 16 and a 10-year at 5.24% mean put premiums and the cash behind them both pay more than they did a few weeks ago. The risk is the calendar: JOLTS today, PCE and $MU tomorrow, and payrolls Friday. If you sell $MU puts before Wednesday, the premium includes the earnings move, and so does the risk.
What's next
| Time (ET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Before open | CarMax ($KMX, est. $0.68) and Carnival ($CCL, est. $1.36) results | Used cars and cruises show how consumers handle high rates and fuel |
| 9:00 | Case-Shiller and FHFA home prices (July) | Housing under 5% Treasury yields |
| 10:00 | JOLTS job openings (Aug.), est. 7.23M vs 7.27M prior | A cooler job market would ease hike bets |
| 10:00 | Consumer confidence (Sept.), est. 90.1 vs 89.4 | How households feel about prices and jobs |
| 11:30 | $54B 52-week and $85B 6-week bill auctions | Demand for short-term Treasuries |
| 12:40 | Fed Governor Barr on the outlook | He said last week more hikes are likely |
| 1:25 / 2:00 | Governor Cook; New York Fed's Williams | Hints for the Oct. 28 decision |
| After close | Concentrix ($CNXC) results | A light after-hours slate |
| Wed 8:30 | PCE inflation (Aug.) and Q2 GDP | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge |
| Wed after close | Micron ($MU) results | The watchlist's biggest chip event |
| Fri 8:30 | September jobs report; $TSLA Q3 deliveries | The last big test before October's Fed meeting |
Sources
- [1]Stock futures decline after higher yields lead to losing session: Live updates — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 2
- [2]Oil extends gains as Middle East supply concerns persist — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 2
- [3]Gold lingers near seven-week low ahead of U.S. economic data — CNBC / Reuters · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 2
- [4]US 10-year Treasury quote — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 2
- [5]Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (Sept. 16, 2026) — Federal Reserve · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 1
- [6]Cook, An Update on AI and the Economy — Federal Reserve · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 1
- [7]Federal Reserve calendar, September 2026 — Federal Reserve · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 1
- [8]Monetary policy decision — Reserve Bank of Australia · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 1
- [9]JOLTS release schedule — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 1
- [10]Release schedule — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 1
- [11]Upcoming auctions — TreasuryDirect · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 1
- [12]JOLTs job openings and consumer confidence among data due Tuesday — Investing.com · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 3
- [13]Bond selloff; Anthropic IPO prospectus reports - what's moving markets — Investing.com / Reuters · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 2
- [14]Micron to report fiscal fourth quarter results on September 30, 2026 — Micron Technology · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 1
- [15]Michael Burry believes the AI bubble may burst sooner than he first believed — CNBC · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 2
- [16]Tesla delays Roadster demo to October 15 — Electrek · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 3
- [17]Safety group urges EU to reject Tesla FSD over speed offset — Investing.com / Reuters · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 2
- [18]Meta taps Australia's Firmus for AI computing capacity in Southeast Asia — Investing.com / Reuters · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 2
- [19]Google appeals against EU order to share data, open Android to AI rivals — Free Malaysia Today / Reuters · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 2
- [20]Barclays reiterates Robinhood stock rating on strong Q3 volumes — Investing.com · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 3
- [21]AST SpaceMobile Form 8-K (Sept. 28, 2026) — SEC EDGAR · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 1
- [22]Shopify opens checkout to browser-based AI agents — TechCrunch · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 2
- [23]Carnival and CarMax earnings preview — Investing.com · Accessed 2026-09-29T08:30:00Z · Tier 3
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor. Do your own research before trading.
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