TSMC’s record quarter meets a broad Asian chip sell-off

Macro overnight

The overnight tape was less calm than Wednesday’s U.S. close. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 1.0%, South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 6.2%, and Japan’s Nikkei lost 3.0% as chipmakers sold off. Hong Kong moved the other way, with the Hang Seng up 1.8%. Reuters reported that European index futures had pointed 0.2% higher and U.S. futures were mostly flat during Asia; by 7:12 a.m. GMT, Europe’s STOXX 600 was down 0.1% at 641.95. The regional picture was therefore rotation, not a uniform global risk-off move.

Rates and currencies reflected the push-pull between softer U.S. inflation data and higher energy risk. The 2-year Treasury yield was 4.1514% and the 10-year 4.5594%, only slightly above the official July 15 closes of 4.13% and 4.55%. The dollar index held at 100.52 after falling 0.4% overnight. Brent was $84.50 a barrel, down 0.5% at the Reuters snapshot but still 11% higher for the week, while gold fell 0.8% to $4,027 an ounce. The VIX’s official July 15 close of 15.67 shows cheaper index protection than a day earlier, but oil and the chip sell-off keep the risk map uneven.

Your tickers

NVDA and AAPL — supplier read-through, not issuer news. TSMC, a key supplier to both companies, reported second-quarter net income of NT$706.6 billion, up 77% year over year. It lifted 2026 capital-spending guidance to $60–$64 billion from $52–$56 billion, forecast third-quarter revenue of $44.6–$45.8 billion, and announced another $100 billion of planned Arizona investment. Those numbers support the durability of advanced-chip demand, but they do not guarantee a matching move in every customer’s shares.

AMD, INTC, MRVL and MU — sector pressure, no new issuer release retained. The same Asia report described a semiconductor sell-off even after TSMC’s results, echoing Wednesday’s U.S. rotation out of memory and chip names. That makes today’s live quote strip and the next company earnings dates more useful than attaching a fresh company thesis to a sector move. No separate post-close release from these four issuers met the current-run evidence threshold, so none is being implied.

What to watch today

• 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. initial unemployment claims, June advance retail sales, the New York Fed Business Leaders Survey and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey are scheduled. The retail-sales time is confirmed by the Census Bureau’s 2026 release calendar.
• 10:00 a.m. ET: U.S. business inventories, pending home sales and the New York Fed’s Reserve Demand Elasticity release are scheduled.
• Watch whether the STOXX 600 holds near its flat opening and whether Brent remains near $84.50; together they test whether energy inflation concern or earnings takes the lead.
• For the semiconductor basket, compare the live AAPL/NVDA/AMD/INTC/MRVL/MU strip with TSMC’s strong demand evidence rather than assuming one sector-wide response.

The morning setup is balanced rather than directional: inflation data have reduced immediate pressure on short rates, TSMC’s quarter confirms strong advanced-chip demand, and broad U.S. volatility closed lower. Against that, Asian semiconductors sold off and Brent stayed high enough to keep energy inflation in view. For wheel investors, the practical educational takeaway is to separate macro volatility, sector positioning, the earnings calendar and willingness to own the underlying; none of these observations is a recommendation to open or close a trade.